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Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Pakistan's nuclear hero, world's No. 1 nuclear suspect
WASHINGTON AND ISLAMABAD –
In Pakistan Abdul Qadeer Khan has long been a respected, almost genial, figure - a cross between a CEO and a sports star.
Streets, schools, even cricket teams carry his name. He paid for a community center near his home in Islamabad, so elderly neighbors would have a place to watch TV. And it's widely noted in the local media that feeding monkeys is his favorite pastime. But Dr. A.Q. Khan didn't become famous for his quirks or charitable impulse.
Related stories:
02/02/04
Pakistani nuclear scientist confesses to sharing secrets
01/09/04
Following the nuclear trail
05/06/03
India, Pakistan suddenly talk peace
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He is revered in his homeland as the father of the Pakistani nuclear weapons program, as the man whose knowledge and drive brought his country fissile equality with archrival India.
In the West, his image is darker. For years US intelligence has considered the tall, gray-haired man as a dangerous kind of A-bomb Johnny Appleseed - a man willing to share weapons secrets with anyone, for a price.
On Sunday, Khan confessed to sharing nuclear technology with Iran, Libya, and North Korea in a 12-page document presented to President Pervez Musharraf, according to a briefing given by government officials to Pakistani media in Islamabad.
On Saturday, Khan was dismissed from his government post by the nuclear command authority, a grouping of top military and political officials supervising the probe.
The government of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has insisted that if secrets were leaked, the scientists were acting on their own. Considering the importance of Pakistan to the war on terrorism, the White House may have little choice but to accept this theory - for now.
"Washington is banking on General Musharraf's assurances that Pakistan's nuclear program is in safe hands and can control the ambitions of individual scientists," says Pakistani defense analyst Aisha Agha Siddiqua.
A colonial upbringing
Khan's roots stretch back to the era of colonialism. As a 10-year-old he saw first-hand the violence that accompanied the end of British rule and the partition of the subcontinent, when he took a harrowing train ride through the desert border region of Khokhrapar to what would become independent Pakistan.
That ride - and what it symbolized - have apparently become central to his character. In Khan's beautiful stone house in the Margalla Hills of Islamabad, a main item of décor is a massive painting depicting the last train crossing into Pakistan before borders were sealed. Throughout his career his chauvinistic rhetoric and anti-Indian taunts have been a crucial reason for his appeal to the Pakistani masses.
"He is hard-core nationalist and a very ambitious person," says A.H. Nayyar, a physicist at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad. "He is in for fame and money."
But neither is Khan an Islamist extremist of the sort suspected to be behind recent assassination attempts against President Musharraf. His wife is a Dutch national whose first name is Henny. Neither she nor their two daughters wear the traditional hijab, or veil. "He is not a fundamentalist . . . but he prays five times [a day] and is a religious person," says his biographer, Zahid Malik.
He is not a nuclear scientist per se, but a metallurgist. He did postgraduate work in Western Europe in the 1960s, and was then recruited to work at a uranium enrichment plant run by Urenco, a Dutch-British-German consortium.
The details of his return to Pakistan remain murky to this day. According to the account in Mr. Malik's biography, in 1974 Khan wrote Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto offering his services to his country. In 1975, during a visit home, Khan visited Mr. Bhutto in his office, and agreed to his plea to return and help Pakistan develop nuclear technology. According to Malik's account, the prime minister then thumped his desk and cheerfully swore that he would now be able to trump India.
Western intelligence believes that Khan is something of a self-promoter. But they agree with Pakistani sources on one thing: Khan brought with him plans for Urenco enrichment technology.
In 1983 a Dutch court convicted Khan in absentia for attempted espionage. The conviction was later overturned on a technicality. Khan himself denies that Pakistan's centrifuge design was purloined, despite its similarity to Urenco work. "He's an extremely proud man and does not want to have the rest of the world believe that he got the centrifuges by stealing the designs," says Matthew Bunn, a nuclear expert at Harvard University.
As head of Pakistan's nuclear effort, Khan was not a technical genius but a managerial one, focusing his country's limited resources on one goal while craftily learning to ply the world market for needed parts and technology, both legally and on the black market.
National figure, international notoriety
After Pakistan detonated nuclear devices in 1998, his status as national hero was assured. But he's far from an international hero. Throughout his career Khan has complained about perceived Western hypocrisy about nuclear weapons and boasted of his ability to beat constraints. Western intelligence believes he has made some 13 trips to North Korea, for instance, in pursuit of a swap of nuclear technology for ballistic missiles. The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency is now investigating possible links between Pakistan and Iran after Tehran acknowledged using centrifuge designs that appear identical to early Pakistani models.
There are indications that Libya received Pakistani technology as well.
Officials say six suspects remain in custody. Among them are three scientists: former director general of the KRL, Mohammad Farooq, and two other close aides of Khan. At this writing, Khan has not been detained but his movement has been restricted and his Islamabad residence is under 24-hour watch.
Pakistani officials say it is possible that their nation's scientists might have engaged in weapons proliferation - on their own. Khan's daughter has said publicly that her father is being made a scapegoat.
"If half of this is true," says Michael Krepon, former director of the Henry L. Stimson Center, "it suggests a huge breakdown in [proliferation] oversight that must be repaired."
In Pakistan Abdul Qadeer Khan has long been a respected, almost genial, figure - a cross between a CEO and a sports star.
Streets, schools, even cricket teams carry his name. He paid for a community center near his home in Islamabad, so elderly neighbors would have a place to watch TV. And it's widely noted in the local media that feeding monkeys is his favorite pastime. But Dr. A.Q. Khan didn't become famous for his quirks or charitable impulse.
Related stories:
02/02/04
Pakistani nuclear scientist confesses to sharing secrets
01/09/04
Following the nuclear trail
05/06/03
India, Pakistan suddenly talk peace
Get all the Monitor's headlines by e-mail.
Subscribe for free.
E-mail a friend
Print this
Letter to the Editor
Republish
ShareThis
E-mail newsletters
RSS
He is revered in his homeland as the father of the Pakistani nuclear weapons program, as the man whose knowledge and drive brought his country fissile equality with archrival India.
In the West, his image is darker. For years US intelligence has considered the tall, gray-haired man as a dangerous kind of A-bomb Johnny Appleseed - a man willing to share weapons secrets with anyone, for a price.
On Sunday, Khan confessed to sharing nuclear technology with Iran, Libya, and North Korea in a 12-page document presented to President Pervez Musharraf, according to a briefing given by government officials to Pakistani media in Islamabad.
On Saturday, Khan was dismissed from his government post by the nuclear command authority, a grouping of top military and political officials supervising the probe.
The government of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has insisted that if secrets were leaked, the scientists were acting on their own. Considering the importance of Pakistan to the war on terrorism, the White House may have little choice but to accept this theory - for now.
"Washington is banking on General Musharraf's assurances that Pakistan's nuclear program is in safe hands and can control the ambitions of individual scientists," says Pakistani defense analyst Aisha Agha Siddiqua.
A colonial upbringing
Khan's roots stretch back to the era of colonialism. As a 10-year-old he saw first-hand the violence that accompanied the end of British rule and the partition of the subcontinent, when he took a harrowing train ride through the desert border region of Khokhrapar to what would become independent Pakistan.
That ride - and what it symbolized - have apparently become central to his character. In Khan's beautiful stone house in the Margalla Hills of Islamabad, a main item of décor is a massive painting depicting the last train crossing into Pakistan before borders were sealed. Throughout his career his chauvinistic rhetoric and anti-Indian taunts have been a crucial reason for his appeal to the Pakistani masses.
"He is hard-core nationalist and a very ambitious person," says A.H. Nayyar, a physicist at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad. "He is in for fame and money."
But neither is Khan an Islamist extremist of the sort suspected to be behind recent assassination attempts against President Musharraf. His wife is a Dutch national whose first name is Henny. Neither she nor their two daughters wear the traditional hijab, or veil. "He is not a fundamentalist . . . but he prays five times [a day] and is a religious person," says his biographer, Zahid Malik.
He is not a nuclear scientist per se, but a metallurgist. He did postgraduate work in Western Europe in the 1960s, and was then recruited to work at a uranium enrichment plant run by Urenco, a Dutch-British-German consortium.
The details of his return to Pakistan remain murky to this day. According to the account in Mr. Malik's biography, in 1974 Khan wrote Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto offering his services to his country. In 1975, during a visit home, Khan visited Mr. Bhutto in his office, and agreed to his plea to return and help Pakistan develop nuclear technology. According to Malik's account, the prime minister then thumped his desk and cheerfully swore that he would now be able to trump India.
Western intelligence believes that Khan is something of a self-promoter. But they agree with Pakistani sources on one thing: Khan brought with him plans for Urenco enrichment technology.
In 1983 a Dutch court convicted Khan in absentia for attempted espionage. The conviction was later overturned on a technicality. Khan himself denies that Pakistan's centrifuge design was purloined, despite its similarity to Urenco work. "He's an extremely proud man and does not want to have the rest of the world believe that he got the centrifuges by stealing the designs," says Matthew Bunn, a nuclear expert at Harvard University.
As head of Pakistan's nuclear effort, Khan was not a technical genius but a managerial one, focusing his country's limited resources on one goal while craftily learning to ply the world market for needed parts and technology, both legally and on the black market.
National figure, international notoriety
After Pakistan detonated nuclear devices in 1998, his status as national hero was assured. But he's far from an international hero. Throughout his career Khan has complained about perceived Western hypocrisy about nuclear weapons and boasted of his ability to beat constraints. Western intelligence believes he has made some 13 trips to North Korea, for instance, in pursuit of a swap of nuclear technology for ballistic missiles. The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency is now investigating possible links between Pakistan and Iran after Tehran acknowledged using centrifuge designs that appear identical to early Pakistani models.
There are indications that Libya received Pakistani technology as well.
Officials say six suspects remain in custody. Among them are three scientists: former director general of the KRL, Mohammad Farooq, and two other close aides of Khan. At this writing, Khan has not been detained but his movement has been restricted and his Islamabad residence is under 24-hour watch.
Pakistani officials say it is possible that their nation's scientists might have engaged in weapons proliferation - on their own. Khan's daughter has said publicly that her father is being made a scapegoat.
"If half of this is true," says Michael Krepon, former director of the Henry L. Stimson Center, "it suggests a huge breakdown in [proliferation] oversight that must be repaired."
Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan
Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, accused in the West of nuclear espionage, is Pakistan's nuclear hero as architect of the country's newly-declared nuclear prowess. He is the brains behind what has been a mysterious and controversial nuclear programme whose latest products are five bombs tested on Thursday and at least one on Saturday - in response to five exploded by arch-rival India this month. He is also the father of Pakistan's medium-range Ghauri missile, test-fired last month and which is said by officials to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads and hitting most Indian cities.
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A scion of a modest family from India's Bhopal state who loves poetry, flowers and animals, he is caught in the subcontinent's current nuclear standoff that has rung alarm bells across the globe. Khan, 62, migrated to Pakistan in 1952, following millions of other Muslims who came here from India at the subcontinent's partition at independence from Britain in 1947. After initial graduation in the port city of Karachi, he went to Europe in 1952 for further studies and subsequent work that was later to become the basis of his trial and conviction in the Netherlands on espionage charges.
Former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto urged Khan to return home in 1976 to be given the job to organise Pakistan's nuclear programme that could give an answer to India's first nuclear explosion of 1974.
"It was...to be precise, on July 31, 1976, when the first seeds, real seeds of Pakistan's nuclear programme were sown," Khan recalled in one of his newspaper articles.
"The date marks the turn in our beloved country's destiny as it was on this fateful day that under the banner of 'Engineering Research Laboratories,' an autonomous organisation was formed under the orders of the late prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto...." The aim of the secret laboratories, set up at Kahuta, near Islamabad, was to "establish a uranium enrichment plant and provide Pakistan with nuclear capability," he wrote.
"In a record short span of six years, Pakistan was put on the nuclear map of the world and a solid foundation was laid for our self-sufficiency in future of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy."
Before returning home, Khan worked at the British/German/Dutch Urenco uranium enrichment facility in the Netherlands in the early 1970s. After his return, a Dutch security enquiry revealed he had probably taken with him most of the
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A scion of a modest family from India's Bhopal state who loves poetry, flowers and animals, he is caught in the subcontinent's current nuclear standoff that has rung alarm bells across the globe. Khan, 62, migrated to Pakistan in 1952, following millions of other Muslims who came here from India at the subcontinent's partition at independence from Britain in 1947. After initial graduation in the port city of Karachi, he went to Europe in 1952 for further studies and subsequent work that was later to become the basis of his trial and conviction in the Netherlands on espionage charges.
Former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto urged Khan to return home in 1976 to be given the job to organise Pakistan's nuclear programme that could give an answer to India's first nuclear explosion of 1974.
"It was...to be precise, on July 31, 1976, when the first seeds, real seeds of Pakistan's nuclear programme were sown," Khan recalled in one of his newspaper articles.
"The date marks the turn in our beloved country's destiny as it was on this fateful day that under the banner of 'Engineering Research Laboratories,' an autonomous organisation was formed under the orders of the late prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto...." The aim of the secret laboratories, set up at Kahuta, near Islamabad, was to "establish a uranium enrichment plant and provide Pakistan with nuclear capability," he wrote.
"In a record short span of six years, Pakistan was put on the nuclear map of the world and a solid foundation was laid for our self-sufficiency in future of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy."
Before returning home, Khan worked at the British/German/Dutch Urenco uranium enrichment facility in the Netherlands in the early 1970s. After his return, a Dutch security enquiry revealed he had probably taken with him most of the
Pakistan's nuclear weapons
A Brief History of Pakistan's Nuclear Program
Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who founded the program while he was Minister for Fuel, Power and Natural Resources, and later became President and Prime Minister. Shortly after the loss of East Pakistan in the 1971 war with India, Bhutto initiated the program with a meeting of physicists and engineers at Multan in January 1972.
India's 1974 testing of a nuclear "device" gave Pakistan's nuclear program new momentum. Through the late 1970s, Pakistan's program acquired sensitive uranium enrichment technology and expertise. The 1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan considerably advanced these efforts. Dr. Khan is a German-trained metallurgist who brought with him knowledge of gas centrifuge technologies that he had acquired through his position at the classified URENCO uranium enrichment plant in the Netherlands. Dr. Khan also reportedly brought with him stolen uranium enrichment technologies from Europe. He was put in charge of building, equipping and operating Pakistan's Kahuta facility, which was established in 1976. Under Khan's direction, Pakistan employed an extensive clandestine network in order to obtain the necessary materials and technology for its developing uranium enrichment capabilities.
In 1985, Pakistan crossed the threshold of weapons-grade uranium production, and by 1986 it is thought to have produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Pakistan continued advancing its uranium enrichment program, and according to Pakistani sources, the nation acquired the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987.
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons - A Chronology
Nuclear Tests
On May 28, 1998 Pakistan announced that it had successfully conducted five nuclear tests. The Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission reported that the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28 generated a seismic signal of 5.0 on the Richter scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT (equivalent TNT). Dr. A.Q. Khan claimed that one device was a boosted fission device and that the other four were sub-kiloton nuclear devices.
On May 30, 1998 Pakistan tested one more nuclear warhead with a reported yield of 12 kilotons. The tests were conducted at Balochistan, bringing the total number of claimed tests to six. It has also been claimed by Pakistani sources that at least one additional device, initially planned for detonation on 30 May 1998, remained emplaced underground ready for detonation.
Pakistani claims concerning the number and yields of their underground tests cannot be independently confirmed by seismic means, and several sources, such as the Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory have reported lower yields than those claimed by Pakistan. Indian sources have also suggested that as few as two weapons were actually detonated, each with yields considerably lower than claimed by Pakistan. However, seismic data showed at least two and possibly a third, much smaller, test in the initial round of tests at the Ras Koh range. The single test on 30 May provided a clear seismic signal.
DEVICE
DATE
YIELD[announced]
YIELD[estimated]
[boosted device?]
28 May 1998
25-36 kiloton
total 9-12 kiloton
Fission device
28 May 1998
12 kiloton
Low-yield device
28 May 1998
sub-kiloton
--
Low-yield device
28 May 1998
sub-kiloton
--
Low-yield device
28 May 1998
sub-kiloton
--
Fission device
30 May 1998
12 kiloton
4-6 kiloton
Fission device
not detonated
12 kiloton
--
This table lists the nuclear tests that Pakistan claims to have carried out in May 1998 as well as the announced yields. Other sources have reported lower yields than those claimed by Pakistan. The Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory reports that the total seismic yield for the May 28th tests was 9-12 kilotons and that the yield for the May 30th tests was 4-6 kilotons.
According to a preliminary analysis conducted at Los Alamos National Laboratory, material released into the atmosphere during an underground nuclear test by Pakistan in May 1998 contained low levels of weapons-grade plutonium. The significance of the Los Alamos finding was that Pakistan had either imported or produced plutonium undetected by the US intelligence community. But Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and other agencies later contested the accuracy of this finding.
These tests came slightly more than two weeks after India carried out five nuclear tests of its own on May 11 and 13 and after many warnings by Pakistani officials that they would respond to India.
Pakistan's nuclear tests were followed by the February 1999 Lahore Agreements between Prime Ministers Vajpayee and Sharif. The agreements included confidence building measures such as advance notice of ballistic missile testing and a continuation of their unilateral moratoria on nuclear testing. But diplomatic advances made that year were undermined by Pakistan's incursion into Kargil. Under US diplomatic pressure, Prime Minister Sharif withdrew his troops, but lost power in October 1999 due to a military coup in which Gen. Pervez Musharraf took over.
Satellite Imagery of Pakistan's May 28 and May 30 nuclear testing sites
Nuclear Infrastructure
Pakistan's nuclear program is based primarily on highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is produced at the A. Q. Khan research laboratory at Kahuta, a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility. The Kahuta facility has been in operation since the early 1980s. By the early 1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation, and Pakistan continued its pursuit of expanded uranium enrichment capabilities.
In the 1990s Pakistan began to pursue plutonium production capabilities. With Chinese assistance, Pakistan built the 40 MWt (megawatt thermal) Khusab research reactor at Joharabad, and in April 1998, Pakistan announced that the reactor was operational. According to public statements made by US officials, this unsafeguarded heavy water reactor generates an estimated 8-10 kilotons of weapons grade plutonium per year, which is enough for one to two nuclear weapons. The reactor could also produce tritium if it were loaded with lithium-6. According to J. Cirincione of Carnegie, Khusab's plutonium production capacity could allow Pakistan to develop lighter nuclear warheads that would be easier to deliver with a ballistic missile.
Plutonium separation reportedly takes place at the New Labs reprocessing plant next to Pakistan's Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (Pinstech) in Rawalpindi and at the larger Chasma nuclear power plant, neither of which are subject to IAEA inspection.
Nuclear Arsenal
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that Pakistan has built 24-48 HEU-based nuclear warheads, and Carnegie reports that they have produced 585-800 kg of HEU, enough for 30-55 weapons. Pakistan's nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated 15-20 kg of material per warhead. According to Carnegie, Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons.
Pakistani authorities claim that their nuclear weapons are not assembled. They maintain that the fissile cores are stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives packages, and that the warheads are stored separately from the delivery systems. In a 2001 report, the Defense Department contends that "Islamabad's nuclear weapons are probably stored in component form" and that "Pakistan probably could assemble the weapons fairly quickly." However, no one has been able to ascertain the validity of Pakistan's assurances about their nuclear weapons security.
Pakistan's reliance primarily on HEU makes its fissile materials particularly vulnerable to diversion. HEU can be used in a relatively simple gun-barrel-type design, which could be within the means of non-state actors that intend to assemble a crude nuclear weapon.
The terrorist attacks on September 11th raised concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. According to press reports, within two days of the attacks, Pakistan's military began relocating nuclear weapons components to six new secret locations. Shortly thereafter, Gen. Pervez Musharraf fired his intelligence chief and other officers and detained several suspected retired nuclear weapons scientists, in an attempt to root out extremist elements that posed a potential threat to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
Concerns have also been raised about Pakistan as a proliferant of nuclear materials and expertise. In November, 2002, shortly after North Korea admitted to pursuing a nuclear weapons program, the press reported allegations that Pakistan had provided assistance in the development of its uranium enrichment program in exchange for North Korean missile technologies.
Foreign Assistance
In the past, China played a major role in the development of Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure, especially when increasingly stringent export controls in western countries made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire materials and technology elsewhere. According to a 2001 Department of Defense report, China has supplied Pakistan with nuclear materials and expertise and has provided critical assistance in the construction of Pakistan's nuclear facilities.
In the 1990s, China designed and supplied the heavy water Khusab reactor, which plays a key role in Pakistan's production of plutonium. A subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation also contributed to Pakistan's efforts to expand its uranium enrichment capabilities by providing 5,000 custom made ring magnets, which are a key component of the bearings that facilitate the high-speed rotation of centrifuges.
According to Anthony Cordesman of CSIS, China is also reported to have provided Pakistan with the design of one of its warheads, which is relatively sophisticated in design and lighter than U.S. and Soviet designed first generation warheads.
China also provided technical and material support in the completion of the Chasma nuclear power reactor and plutonium reprocessing facility, which was built in the mid 1990s. The project had been initiated as a cooperative program with France, but Pakistan's failure to sign the NPT and unwillingness to accept IAEA safeguards on its entire nuclear program caused France to terminate assistance.
According to the Defense Department report cited above, Pakistan has also acquired nuclear related and dual-use and equipment and materials from the Former Soviet Union and Western Europe.
Intermittent US Sanctions
On several occasions, under the authority of amendments to the Foreign Assistance Act, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Pakistan, cutting off economic and military aid as a result of its pursuit of nuclear weapons. However, the U.S. suspended sanctions each time developments in Afghanistan made Pakistan a strategically important "frontline state," such as the 1981 Soviet occupation and in the war on terrorism.
Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine
Several sources, such as Jane's Intelligence Review and Defense Department reports maintain that Pakistan's motive for pursuing a nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat posed by its principal rival, India, which has superior conventional forces and nuclear weapons.
Pakistan has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). According to the Defense Department report cited above, "Pakistan remains steadfast in its refusal to sign the NPT, stating that it would do so only after India joined the Treaty. Consequently, not all of Pakistan's nuclear facilities are under IAEA safeguards. Pakistani officials have stated that signature of the CTBT is in Pakistan's best interest, but that Pakistan will do so only after developing a domestic consensus on the issue, and have disavowed any connection with India's decision."
Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine, as evidenced by President Pervez Musharraf's statements in May, 2002. Musharraf said that Pakistan did not want a conflict with India but that if it came to war between the nuclear-armed rivals, he would "respond with full might." These statements were interpreted to mean that if pressed by an overwhelming conventional attack from India, which has superior conventional forces, Pakistan might use its nuclear weapons.
Sources and Resources
UN Nuclear Chief Warns of Global Black Market Mohammed ElBaradei commenting on questions raised by the Khan confession, February 6, 2004.
Abdul Qadeer Khan "Apologizes" for Transferring Nuclear Secrets Abroad, broadcast on Pakistani television, February 4, 2004.
Documents Indicate A.Q. Khan Offered Nuclear Weapon Designs to Iraq in 1990: Did He Approach Other Countries? By David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, February 4, 2004
Deadly Arsenals, chapter on Paksitan - by Joseph Cirincione, John B.Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar (Carnegie, June 2002). The chapter discusses Pakistan's WMD, missile and aircraft capabilities. It also presents the strategic context of the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan and the history of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, touching on foreign assistance from China and on-and-off US economic assistance.
Proliferation: Threat and Response, Jan. 2001 - A Defense Department report on the status of nuclear proliferation in South Asia. It includes a brief historical background on the conflict between India and Pakistan as well as an assessment of their nuclear capabilities, chem/bio programs, ballistic missile programs and other means of delivery.
ENHANCING NUCLEAR SECURITY IN THE COUNTER-TERRORISM STRUGGLE: India and Pakistan as a New Region for Cooperation - by Rose Gottemoeller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 2002. This working paper explores possible cooperative programs that could enhance the security of Pakistan and India's nuclear arsenals, in order to prevent the diversion of dangerous materials into the hands of terrorists or rogue state leaders.
"Pakistan's Nuclear Forces, 2001" from NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Jan/Feb 2002. A Two-page update on the state of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. It makes rough estimates of the number of nuclear weapons and the amount of fissile material in Pakistan's possession and touches on fissile material production capabilities. Also included is a brief discussion of delivery mechanisms such as aircraft and missiles.
Monterey Institute Resource Page on India and Pakistan - last updated July 7, 2000. This page has many useful links to relevant maps, news articles and analytical pieces on India and Pakistan's nuclear programs.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Pakistan resources
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons - A Chronology - a timeline of the Pakistan's Nuclear Development program since 1965.
"The Threat of Pakistani Nuclear Weapons" - a CSIS report by Anthony H. Cordesman (Last updated Nov. 2001). - This report tells the history of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program and discusses China role in its development. It also lists recent US intelligence reports on Pakistan's activities.
From Testing to Deploying Nuclear Forces: The Hard Choices Facing India and Pakistan - Gregory S. Jones. (Rand, 2000). "This issue paper describes the requirements for a nuclear deterrent force in general terms, discusses how the Indian-Pakistani nuclear relationship is affected by China, and then considers the specific decisions that still must be made in India and Pakistan."
Pakistan Nuclear Update, 2001 - Wisconsin Project. This three-page document provides a brief summary of Pakistan's main nuclear sites and an update on developments in Pakistan's nuclear program.
Securing Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal: Principles for Assistance - by David Albright, Kevin O'Neill and Corey Hinderstein, Oct. 4, 2001. An ISIS issue brief on the potential threats to the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
The May 1998 India and Pakistan Nuclear Tests - by Terry C. Wallace, Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory (SASO), 1998. This technical paper provides a seismic analysis of India and Pakistan's 1998 nuclear tests. It concludes that Pakistan's May 28 tests had a seismic yield of 9-12 kt, and the May 30 test had a yield of 4-6 kt. An updated web page on this report can be found here
Satellite Imagery of Pakistan's May 28 and May 30 nuclear testing sites, hosted on the Center for Monitoring Research Commercial Satellite Imagery Page
"Pakistan's Nuclear Dilemma" - September 23 2001, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Transcripts from a Carnegie panel on developments in Pakistan in the aftermath of the Septempber 11th attacks. The panel included three speakers -- Shirin Tahir-Kheli, George Perkovich and Rose Gottemoeller-- and was moderated by Joseph Cirincione.
Chapter on Pakistan, from Tracking Nuclear Proliferation: A Guide in Maps and Charts, 1998 by Rodney W. Jones, Mark G. McDonough, with Toby F. Dalton and Gregory D. Koblentz (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment, July 1998). This chapter documents the history of Pakistan's nuclear program and tracks the development of its nuclear infrastructure. It also covers in detail the sanctions the US imposed on Pakistan in light of these developments, as well Pakistan's missile program.
"U.S. Appears to be Losing Track of Pakistan's Nuclear Program" and "U.S. Now Believes Pakistan to use Khushab Plutonium in Bomb Program" By Mark Hibbs July, 1998. Two brief articles written in the aftermath of Paksistan's 1998 nuclear tests -- they discuss Pakistan's weapons grade uranium and plutonium production capacities and the implications for its nuclear arsenal.
"U.S. Labs at Odds on Whether Pakistani Blast Used Plutonium," by Dana Priest Washington Post Sunday, January 17, 1999; Page A02. This article discusses the controversy over the preliminary analysis carried out by Los Alamos National Laboratory, which found that plutonium traces had been released into the atomosphere during Pakistan's May 30th underground nuclear test. Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Labs contested the accuracy of this finding and alleged that Los Alamos had contaminated and then lost the air sample. At the time, Los Alamos' findings were highly controversial because they implied that Pakistan had obtained plutonium either though imports or indigenous production, and there was uncertainty about Pakistan's plutonium production capabilities. It is now public knowledge that Pakistan can produce and isolate plutonium at its Khusbab reactor and at the New Labs and Chasma separation facilities.
NUCLEARISATION OF SOUTH ASIA AND ITS REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS Munir Ahmed Khan REGIONAL STUDIES Autumn 1998
Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who founded the program while he was Minister for Fuel, Power and Natural Resources, and later became President and Prime Minister. Shortly after the loss of East Pakistan in the 1971 war with India, Bhutto initiated the program with a meeting of physicists and engineers at Multan in January 1972.
India's 1974 testing of a nuclear "device" gave Pakistan's nuclear program new momentum. Through the late 1970s, Pakistan's program acquired sensitive uranium enrichment technology and expertise. The 1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan considerably advanced these efforts. Dr. Khan is a German-trained metallurgist who brought with him knowledge of gas centrifuge technologies that he had acquired through his position at the classified URENCO uranium enrichment plant in the Netherlands. Dr. Khan also reportedly brought with him stolen uranium enrichment technologies from Europe. He was put in charge of building, equipping and operating Pakistan's Kahuta facility, which was established in 1976. Under Khan's direction, Pakistan employed an extensive clandestine network in order to obtain the necessary materials and technology for its developing uranium enrichment capabilities.
In 1985, Pakistan crossed the threshold of weapons-grade uranium production, and by 1986 it is thought to have produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Pakistan continued advancing its uranium enrichment program, and according to Pakistani sources, the nation acquired the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987.
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons - A Chronology
Nuclear Tests
On May 28, 1998 Pakistan announced that it had successfully conducted five nuclear tests. The Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission reported that the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28 generated a seismic signal of 5.0 on the Richter scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT (equivalent TNT). Dr. A.Q. Khan claimed that one device was a boosted fission device and that the other four were sub-kiloton nuclear devices.
On May 30, 1998 Pakistan tested one more nuclear warhead with a reported yield of 12 kilotons. The tests were conducted at Balochistan, bringing the total number of claimed tests to six. It has also been claimed by Pakistani sources that at least one additional device, initially planned for detonation on 30 May 1998, remained emplaced underground ready for detonation.
Pakistani claims concerning the number and yields of their underground tests cannot be independently confirmed by seismic means, and several sources, such as the Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory have reported lower yields than those claimed by Pakistan. Indian sources have also suggested that as few as two weapons were actually detonated, each with yields considerably lower than claimed by Pakistan. However, seismic data showed at least two and possibly a third, much smaller, test in the initial round of tests at the Ras Koh range. The single test on 30 May provided a clear seismic signal.
DEVICE
DATE
YIELD[announced]
YIELD[estimated]
[boosted device?]
28 May 1998
25-36 kiloton
total 9-12 kiloton
Fission device
28 May 1998
12 kiloton
Low-yield device
28 May 1998
sub-kiloton
--
Low-yield device
28 May 1998
sub-kiloton
--
Low-yield device
28 May 1998
sub-kiloton
--
Fission device
30 May 1998
12 kiloton
4-6 kiloton
Fission device
not detonated
12 kiloton
--
This table lists the nuclear tests that Pakistan claims to have carried out in May 1998 as well as the announced yields. Other sources have reported lower yields than those claimed by Pakistan. The Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory reports that the total seismic yield for the May 28th tests was 9-12 kilotons and that the yield for the May 30th tests was 4-6 kilotons.
According to a preliminary analysis conducted at Los Alamos National Laboratory, material released into the atmosphere during an underground nuclear test by Pakistan in May 1998 contained low levels of weapons-grade plutonium. The significance of the Los Alamos finding was that Pakistan had either imported or produced plutonium undetected by the US intelligence community. But Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and other agencies later contested the accuracy of this finding.
These tests came slightly more than two weeks after India carried out five nuclear tests of its own on May 11 and 13 and after many warnings by Pakistani officials that they would respond to India.
Pakistan's nuclear tests were followed by the February 1999 Lahore Agreements between Prime Ministers Vajpayee and Sharif. The agreements included confidence building measures such as advance notice of ballistic missile testing and a continuation of their unilateral moratoria on nuclear testing. But diplomatic advances made that year were undermined by Pakistan's incursion into Kargil. Under US diplomatic pressure, Prime Minister Sharif withdrew his troops, but lost power in October 1999 due to a military coup in which Gen. Pervez Musharraf took over.
Satellite Imagery of Pakistan's May 28 and May 30 nuclear testing sites
Nuclear Infrastructure
Pakistan's nuclear program is based primarily on highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is produced at the A. Q. Khan research laboratory at Kahuta, a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility. The Kahuta facility has been in operation since the early 1980s. By the early 1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation, and Pakistan continued its pursuit of expanded uranium enrichment capabilities.
In the 1990s Pakistan began to pursue plutonium production capabilities. With Chinese assistance, Pakistan built the 40 MWt (megawatt thermal) Khusab research reactor at Joharabad, and in April 1998, Pakistan announced that the reactor was operational. According to public statements made by US officials, this unsafeguarded heavy water reactor generates an estimated 8-10 kilotons of weapons grade plutonium per year, which is enough for one to two nuclear weapons. The reactor could also produce tritium if it were loaded with lithium-6. According to J. Cirincione of Carnegie, Khusab's plutonium production capacity could allow Pakistan to develop lighter nuclear warheads that would be easier to deliver with a ballistic missile.
Plutonium separation reportedly takes place at the New Labs reprocessing plant next to Pakistan's Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (Pinstech) in Rawalpindi and at the larger Chasma nuclear power plant, neither of which are subject to IAEA inspection.
Nuclear Arsenal
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that Pakistan has built 24-48 HEU-based nuclear warheads, and Carnegie reports that they have produced 585-800 kg of HEU, enough for 30-55 weapons. Pakistan's nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated 15-20 kg of material per warhead. According to Carnegie, Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons.
Pakistani authorities claim that their nuclear weapons are not assembled. They maintain that the fissile cores are stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives packages, and that the warheads are stored separately from the delivery systems. In a 2001 report, the Defense Department contends that "Islamabad's nuclear weapons are probably stored in component form" and that "Pakistan probably could assemble the weapons fairly quickly." However, no one has been able to ascertain the validity of Pakistan's assurances about their nuclear weapons security.
Pakistan's reliance primarily on HEU makes its fissile materials particularly vulnerable to diversion. HEU can be used in a relatively simple gun-barrel-type design, which could be within the means of non-state actors that intend to assemble a crude nuclear weapon.
The terrorist attacks on September 11th raised concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. According to press reports, within two days of the attacks, Pakistan's military began relocating nuclear weapons components to six new secret locations. Shortly thereafter, Gen. Pervez Musharraf fired his intelligence chief and other officers and detained several suspected retired nuclear weapons scientists, in an attempt to root out extremist elements that posed a potential threat to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
Concerns have also been raised about Pakistan as a proliferant of nuclear materials and expertise. In November, 2002, shortly after North Korea admitted to pursuing a nuclear weapons program, the press reported allegations that Pakistan had provided assistance in the development of its uranium enrichment program in exchange for North Korean missile technologies.
Foreign Assistance
In the past, China played a major role in the development of Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure, especially when increasingly stringent export controls in western countries made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire materials and technology elsewhere. According to a 2001 Department of Defense report, China has supplied Pakistan with nuclear materials and expertise and has provided critical assistance in the construction of Pakistan's nuclear facilities.
In the 1990s, China designed and supplied the heavy water Khusab reactor, which plays a key role in Pakistan's production of plutonium. A subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation also contributed to Pakistan's efforts to expand its uranium enrichment capabilities by providing 5,000 custom made ring magnets, which are a key component of the bearings that facilitate the high-speed rotation of centrifuges.
According to Anthony Cordesman of CSIS, China is also reported to have provided Pakistan with the design of one of its warheads, which is relatively sophisticated in design and lighter than U.S. and Soviet designed first generation warheads.
China also provided technical and material support in the completion of the Chasma nuclear power reactor and plutonium reprocessing facility, which was built in the mid 1990s. The project had been initiated as a cooperative program with France, but Pakistan's failure to sign the NPT and unwillingness to accept IAEA safeguards on its entire nuclear program caused France to terminate assistance.
According to the Defense Department report cited above, Pakistan has also acquired nuclear related and dual-use and equipment and materials from the Former Soviet Union and Western Europe.
Intermittent US Sanctions
On several occasions, under the authority of amendments to the Foreign Assistance Act, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Pakistan, cutting off economic and military aid as a result of its pursuit of nuclear weapons. However, the U.S. suspended sanctions each time developments in Afghanistan made Pakistan a strategically important "frontline state," such as the 1981 Soviet occupation and in the war on terrorism.
Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine
Several sources, such as Jane's Intelligence Review and Defense Department reports maintain that Pakistan's motive for pursuing a nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat posed by its principal rival, India, which has superior conventional forces and nuclear weapons.
Pakistan has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). According to the Defense Department report cited above, "Pakistan remains steadfast in its refusal to sign the NPT, stating that it would do so only after India joined the Treaty. Consequently, not all of Pakistan's nuclear facilities are under IAEA safeguards. Pakistani officials have stated that signature of the CTBT is in Pakistan's best interest, but that Pakistan will do so only after developing a domestic consensus on the issue, and have disavowed any connection with India's decision."
Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine, as evidenced by President Pervez Musharraf's statements in May, 2002. Musharraf said that Pakistan did not want a conflict with India but that if it came to war between the nuclear-armed rivals, he would "respond with full might." These statements were interpreted to mean that if pressed by an overwhelming conventional attack from India, which has superior conventional forces, Pakistan might use its nuclear weapons.
Sources and Resources
UN Nuclear Chief Warns of Global Black Market Mohammed ElBaradei commenting on questions raised by the Khan confession, February 6, 2004.
Abdul Qadeer Khan "Apologizes" for Transferring Nuclear Secrets Abroad, broadcast on Pakistani television, February 4, 2004.
Documents Indicate A.Q. Khan Offered Nuclear Weapon Designs to Iraq in 1990: Did He Approach Other Countries? By David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, February 4, 2004
Deadly Arsenals, chapter on Paksitan - by Joseph Cirincione, John B.Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar (Carnegie, June 2002). The chapter discusses Pakistan's WMD, missile and aircraft capabilities. It also presents the strategic context of the nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan and the history of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, touching on foreign assistance from China and on-and-off US economic assistance.
Proliferation: Threat and Response, Jan. 2001 - A Defense Department report on the status of nuclear proliferation in South Asia. It includes a brief historical background on the conflict between India and Pakistan as well as an assessment of their nuclear capabilities, chem/bio programs, ballistic missile programs and other means of delivery.
ENHANCING NUCLEAR SECURITY IN THE COUNTER-TERRORISM STRUGGLE: India and Pakistan as a New Region for Cooperation - by Rose Gottemoeller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 2002. This working paper explores possible cooperative programs that could enhance the security of Pakistan and India's nuclear arsenals, in order to prevent the diversion of dangerous materials into the hands of terrorists or rogue state leaders.
"Pakistan's Nuclear Forces, 2001" from NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Jan/Feb 2002. A Two-page update on the state of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. It makes rough estimates of the number of nuclear weapons and the amount of fissile material in Pakistan's possession and touches on fissile material production capabilities. Also included is a brief discussion of delivery mechanisms such as aircraft and missiles.
Monterey Institute Resource Page on India and Pakistan - last updated July 7, 2000. This page has many useful links to relevant maps, news articles and analytical pieces on India and Pakistan's nuclear programs.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Pakistan resources
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons - A Chronology - a timeline of the Pakistan's Nuclear Development program since 1965.
"The Threat of Pakistani Nuclear Weapons" - a CSIS report by Anthony H. Cordesman (Last updated Nov. 2001). - This report tells the history of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program and discusses China role in its development. It also lists recent US intelligence reports on Pakistan's activities.
From Testing to Deploying Nuclear Forces: The Hard Choices Facing India and Pakistan - Gregory S. Jones. (Rand, 2000). "This issue paper describes the requirements for a nuclear deterrent force in general terms, discusses how the Indian-Pakistani nuclear relationship is affected by China, and then considers the specific decisions that still must be made in India and Pakistan."
Pakistan Nuclear Update, 2001 - Wisconsin Project. This three-page document provides a brief summary of Pakistan's main nuclear sites and an update on developments in Pakistan's nuclear program.
Securing Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal: Principles for Assistance - by David Albright, Kevin O'Neill and Corey Hinderstein, Oct. 4, 2001. An ISIS issue brief on the potential threats to the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
The May 1998 India and Pakistan Nuclear Tests - by Terry C. Wallace, Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory (SASO), 1998. This technical paper provides a seismic analysis of India and Pakistan's 1998 nuclear tests. It concludes that Pakistan's May 28 tests had a seismic yield of 9-12 kt, and the May 30 test had a yield of 4-6 kt. An updated web page on this report can be found here
Satellite Imagery of Pakistan's May 28 and May 30 nuclear testing sites, hosted on the Center for Monitoring Research Commercial Satellite Imagery Page
"Pakistan's Nuclear Dilemma" - September 23 2001, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Transcripts from a Carnegie panel on developments in Pakistan in the aftermath of the Septempber 11th attacks. The panel included three speakers -- Shirin Tahir-Kheli, George Perkovich and Rose Gottemoeller-- and was moderated by Joseph Cirincione.
Chapter on Pakistan, from Tracking Nuclear Proliferation: A Guide in Maps and Charts, 1998 by Rodney W. Jones, Mark G. McDonough, with Toby F. Dalton and Gregory D. Koblentz (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment, July 1998). This chapter documents the history of Pakistan's nuclear program and tracks the development of its nuclear infrastructure. It also covers in detail the sanctions the US imposed on Pakistan in light of these developments, as well Pakistan's missile program.
"U.S. Appears to be Losing Track of Pakistan's Nuclear Program" and "U.S. Now Believes Pakistan to use Khushab Plutonium in Bomb Program" By Mark Hibbs July, 1998. Two brief articles written in the aftermath of Paksistan's 1998 nuclear tests -- they discuss Pakistan's weapons grade uranium and plutonium production capacities and the implications for its nuclear arsenal.
"U.S. Labs at Odds on Whether Pakistani Blast Used Plutonium," by Dana Priest Washington Post Sunday, January 17, 1999; Page A02. This article discusses the controversy over the preliminary analysis carried out by Los Alamos National Laboratory, which found that plutonium traces had been released into the atomosphere during Pakistan's May 30th underground nuclear test. Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Labs contested the accuracy of this finding and alleged that Los Alamos had contaminated and then lost the air sample. At the time, Los Alamos' findings were highly controversial because they implied that Pakistan had obtained plutonium either though imports or indigenous production, and there was uncertainty about Pakistan's plutonium production capabilities. It is now public knowledge that Pakistan can produce and isolate plutonium at its Khusbab reactor and at the New Labs and Chasma separation facilities.
NUCLEARISATION OF SOUTH ASIA AND ITS REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS Munir Ahmed Khan REGIONAL STUDIES Autumn 1998
US policy for pakistan
Key areas of U.S. concern regarding Pakistan include regional terrorism; weapons proliferation; the ongoing Kashmir dispute and Pakistan-India tensions; human rights protection; and economic development. A U.S.-Pakistan relationship marked by distance and discord was transformed by the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the ensuing enlistment of Pakistan as a pivotal ally in U.S.-led anti-terrorism efforts. Top U.S. officials regularly praise Pakistan for its ongoing cooperation, although concerns exist about Islamabad’s commitment to core U.S. concerns in the region. Pakistan continues to face serious problems, including a weak economy and domestic terrorism.
A potential Pakistan-India arms race has been the focus of U.S. nonproliferation efforts in South Asia. Attention to this issue intensified following nuclear tests by both countries in May1998; the tests triggered restrictions on U.S. aid to both countries (remaining nuclear-related sanctions on Pakistan were waived in October 2001). South Asia is viewed by many analysts as a high-risk arena for the use of nuclear weapons, as both countries have institutionalized nuclear command structures and deployed nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. Pakistan and India have fought three full-scale wars since 1947.
Separatist violence in the disputed Kashmir region has continued unabated since 1989. India blames Pakistan for the ongoing infiltration of Islamic militants into Indian Kashmir, a charge Islamabad denies. The United States received a June 2002 pledge from Islamabad that all “cross-border terrorism” would cease, along with a May 2003 pledge that all terrorist training camps in Pakistani-controlled areas would be closed. The United States encourages a cease-fire along the Line of Control and renewed dialogue between Islamabad and New Delhi.
A stable, democratic, economically thriving Pakistan is vital to U.S. interests in South and Central Asia. Democracy has faired poorly in Pakistan; the country has endured three full-scale military coups and military rule for half of its existence. In October 1999, the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was ousted in an extra-constitutional coup led by Army Chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf has since assumed the title of President, a move ostensibly legitimized by a controversial April 2002 referendum. The United States strongly urges the Musharraf government to restore the country to civilian democratic rule. National elections held in October 2002 resulted in no clear majority party emerging but were marked by significant gains for a coalition of Islamic parties. A National Assembly and Prime Minister Jamali were seated in November 2002, but the civilian government remains stalled on procedural issues related to the legality of constitutional changes made by Musharraf in August 2002 and his status as Army Chief. The U.S. Congress granted the President authority to waive coup-related sanctions on Pakistan through FY2003; pending legislation may extend this authority though FY2005.
Pakistan received more than $1.5 billion in U.S. assistance for FY2002 and FY2003. In June 2003, President Bush pledged to seek a five-year, $3 billion aid package for Pakistan to begin in FY2005.
A potential Pakistan-India arms race has been the focus of U.S. nonproliferation efforts in South Asia. Attention to this issue intensified following nuclear tests by both countries in May1998; the tests triggered restrictions on U.S. aid to both countries (remaining nuclear-related sanctions on Pakistan were waived in October 2001). South Asia is viewed by many analysts as a high-risk arena for the use of nuclear weapons, as both countries have institutionalized nuclear command structures and deployed nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. Pakistan and India have fought three full-scale wars since 1947.
Separatist violence in the disputed Kashmir region has continued unabated since 1989. India blames Pakistan for the ongoing infiltration of Islamic militants into Indian Kashmir, a charge Islamabad denies. The United States received a June 2002 pledge from Islamabad that all “cross-border terrorism” would cease, along with a May 2003 pledge that all terrorist training camps in Pakistani-controlled areas would be closed. The United States encourages a cease-fire along the Line of Control and renewed dialogue between Islamabad and New Delhi.
A stable, democratic, economically thriving Pakistan is vital to U.S. interests in South and Central Asia. Democracy has faired poorly in Pakistan; the country has endured three full-scale military coups and military rule for half of its existence. In October 1999, the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was ousted in an extra-constitutional coup led by Army Chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf has since assumed the title of President, a move ostensibly legitimized by a controversial April 2002 referendum. The United States strongly urges the Musharraf government to restore the country to civilian democratic rule. National elections held in October 2002 resulted in no clear majority party emerging but were marked by significant gains for a coalition of Islamic parties. A National Assembly and Prime Minister Jamali were seated in November 2002, but the civilian government remains stalled on procedural issues related to the legality of constitutional changes made by Musharraf in August 2002 and his status as Army Chief. The U.S. Congress granted the President authority to waive coup-related sanctions on Pakistan through FY2003; pending legislation may extend this authority though FY2005.
Pakistan received more than $1.5 billion in U.S. assistance for FY2002 and FY2003. In June 2003, President Bush pledged to seek a five-year, $3 billion aid package for Pakistan to begin in FY2005.
HAARP used in Pakistan
99.99999 percent of the people have no idea what you're talking about......I don't think topix is the place to discuss HAARP, anyhow I'll try, the last earthquake in China was rumored to have been caused by HAARP. HAARP probably is the one of the most potent weapons the USA has, I also don't think tthey completely understand the potential disaster they could create by tinkering with the ionosphere...http://www.haarp.net/
breakin2
Joined: Aug 19, 2008
Comments: 130
earth.
ISP: Tujunga, CA
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#4
Oct 28, 2008
Tim John wrote:
"We have received reports of heavy casualties, we can't confirm how many," Quetta-based army spokesman Major Shabahat Hussain told AFP.http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx... ,..I wonder what HAARP is up to these days, oh I mean I wonder how the Alaskan oil pipeline is doing...http://www.cuttingedge.org/News/n1624.cfm Do you have one single iota of scientific evidence to back up such a claim? No. You don't.Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.
baad indyan
“lol”
Joined: Sep 27, 2007
Comments: 2219
Miami
ISP: Gainesville, FL
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#8
Oct 29, 2008
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Northwestern end of Pakistan is on a very volatile geological area. It is on the edge of the Indian tectonic plate that collided into Eurasia forming the Himalayas. They just had a more tragic earthquake a few years back.
Bangin Bengali
Hicksville, NY
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#9
Oct 29, 2008
Yes, it could be HAARP.... could be not. However you will see a LOT of things happening after 2012. This is just the warm up/
hubert
Ober-ramstadt, Germany
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#10
Oct 29, 2008
y infact there are the tectonic plates....but nevertheless it was caused by haarp...i got relatives over there, while i personally live in germany... my parents phoned them ofcourse right after they heared about the tragical event.and gues what: they saw strange light over the city. they never ever yin their lives have seeen anything like that before...it was like a thunderstorm they said... the trees started moving and so on... i am totally conviced it was haarp...because the same lights were seen and filmed just before the quake in china....beyon that u need to see the strategical reasons....pakistan was a loyal servant of the US for a long time... but now they switched sides and forced the president(loyal to US) to step back. the old traditional partys and influencive muslim families took over the countrie again and restored power...wich made USA really upset...thats why they bombed the building next to the one where a major political meeting was heald... u might remember(they said it was terrorists who blew it up with a truck....but thats impossible, because there was a huge whole in the ground. while a truck which detonate would spread its destrucive energy to the sides and owould leave no hole, a missile of an millitarry jet would.it was clearly an attack by the US to warn Pakistan to cooperate)....but pakistan didnt ... and then the US even carried out some millitarry operations in pakistan and by that violated the international law of territorial integrity...that was enough for pakistan so they cut of the NATO and US troops in afghanistan from oil supply(pakistan was the most important deliverer)well...gues what happened next....yeah exactly the quake...beyon that u musst alos think of the IPI.... the pipeline conecting INDIA and IRAN through PAKISTAN....india,iran,syrian, russia,china,venezuela,...and others have got a defensive treaty....pakistan was about to join it.... and help india and china supply iran with oil,gas,food,millitarry equipment and all stuff they need.there were several pipelines and railroads planned to iran, and many are already beeing built...and with no doubt IRAn is the next target of the israeli-anglo-american forces... so they want to stop this...this was a clear and last warning towards pakistan dude... and ull see ...if they dont cooperate in future ...there will happen something even much worse....anyways sorry for my bad english.god im happy my relatives in pakistan are well up....they are leaving the countrie now emediatly...but actually nobody of my familly knows wich countrie actually is still safe on mother earth... i dont know a single one to be honest...anyways good luck guys....and buy some food... this christmas will be unforgettable for the world....ull see
hubert
Ober-ramstadt, Germany
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#11
Oct 29, 2008
Tim John wrote:
,.. I will have all the evidence I need once the video comes in that shows the skies over Pakistan about 20 to 45 minutes before the earthquake hit.....Hint, Hint ,.. dude...there was an EU -conference concerning HAARP and its possible effects on the world....and they DID prove that HAARP infact does existe and is able to manipulate wether and cause earthquakes....
Nelson X
Chelmsford, UK
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#14
Oct 29, 2008
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what a pile of horse shit.
hubert
Ober-ramstadt, Germany
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#17
Oct 30, 2008
Tim John wrote:
I know,.. are u kidding?!! hell they were runnign for their lives!!! they left all behind...well actually they ddint run but they got into their car and emmidiatly drove away.actually... they werent that near to the epi center... but still near enough to feel the quake abit and beeing scarred like hell...
hubert
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#18
Oct 30, 2008
Tim John wrote:
"anyways good luck guys....and buy some food... this christmas will be unforgettable for the world....ull see"What do you mean by this, come back and explain this!! well i can only tell for sure about germany, but it will probably be world wide...i mean: financial and economical collapse is coming...it will take place atleast partly...and will ofcourse effect import and export and also the supermarkets.... there wont be enough food for all... many will starve even in rich countires...i know this out of first hand... wont be the biggest disaster u can imagine but for the first time the population will feel the consequences... and this cristmas will burn into their heads.... gues no great christmass dinner for many of us....beyon in the next 6 month the dollar will collapse and be replaced by the amero. there will be a financial union between USA CANADA and MEXICO...this information is still highly classified and kept secret.... but it leacked out ... and its all about forming the new NORTH american union.... your borders willl vannish...many americans will be very upset and there willl be riots, mass demonstrations and stuff... marshall law(wich secretly is already active) will officially be initiated and the millitarry will help the police to restore law and order.thats why quite a big part of the troops from irak is coming home... but there will also be aid from UN, NATO troops and even german special forces who have been secretly put into your countrie years ago and are training since then for the events to come...i know this because my second best friend is one of them.... he left me a goodbye-letter 2 years ago...may sound strange for the momment....but you will see.im soon heading towards russia with my family here in germany.so as i said: good luck
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breakin2
Joined: Aug 19, 2008
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earth.
ISP: Tujunga, CA
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Oct 28, 2008
Tim John wrote:
"We have received reports of heavy casualties, we can't confirm how many," Quetta-based army spokesman Major Shabahat Hussain told AFP.http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx... ,..I wonder what HAARP is up to these days, oh I mean I wonder how the Alaskan oil pipeline is doing...http://www.cuttingedge.org/News/n1624.cfm Do you have one single iota of scientific evidence to back up such a claim? No. You don't.Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.
baad indyan
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Miami
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Oct 29, 2008
Judged:
1
Northwestern end of Pakistan is on a very volatile geological area. It is on the edge of the Indian tectonic plate that collided into Eurasia forming the Himalayas. They just had a more tragic earthquake a few years back.
Bangin Bengali
Hicksville, NY
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Oct 29, 2008
Yes, it could be HAARP.... could be not. However you will see a LOT of things happening after 2012. This is just the warm up/
hubert
Ober-ramstadt, Germany
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#10
Oct 29, 2008
y infact there are the tectonic plates....but nevertheless it was caused by haarp...i got relatives over there, while i personally live in germany... my parents phoned them ofcourse right after they heared about the tragical event.and gues what: they saw strange light over the city. they never ever yin their lives have seeen anything like that before...it was like a thunderstorm they said... the trees started moving and so on... i am totally conviced it was haarp...because the same lights were seen and filmed just before the quake in china....beyon that u need to see the strategical reasons....pakistan was a loyal servant of the US for a long time... but now they switched sides and forced the president(loyal to US) to step back. the old traditional partys and influencive muslim families took over the countrie again and restored power...wich made USA really upset...thats why they bombed the building next to the one where a major political meeting was heald... u might remember(they said it was terrorists who blew it up with a truck....but thats impossible, because there was a huge whole in the ground. while a truck which detonate would spread its destrucive energy to the sides and owould leave no hole, a missile of an millitarry jet would.it was clearly an attack by the US to warn Pakistan to cooperate)....but pakistan didnt ... and then the US even carried out some millitarry operations in pakistan and by that violated the international law of territorial integrity...that was enough for pakistan so they cut of the NATO and US troops in afghanistan from oil supply(pakistan was the most important deliverer)well...gues what happened next....yeah exactly the quake...beyon that u musst alos think of the IPI.... the pipeline conecting INDIA and IRAN through PAKISTAN....india,iran,syrian, russia,china,venezuela,...and others have got a defensive treaty....pakistan was about to join it.... and help india and china supply iran with oil,gas,food,millitarry equipment and all stuff they need.there were several pipelines and railroads planned to iran, and many are already beeing built...and with no doubt IRAn is the next target of the israeli-anglo-american forces... so they want to stop this...this was a clear and last warning towards pakistan dude... and ull see ...if they dont cooperate in future ...there will happen something even much worse....anyways sorry for my bad english.god im happy my relatives in pakistan are well up....they are leaving the countrie now emediatly...but actually nobody of my familly knows wich countrie actually is still safe on mother earth... i dont know a single one to be honest...anyways good luck guys....and buy some food... this christmas will be unforgettable for the world....ull see
hubert
Ober-ramstadt, Germany
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#11
Oct 29, 2008
Tim John wrote:
Nelson X
Chelmsford, UK
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Oct 29, 2008
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what a pile of horse shit.
hubert
Ober-ramstadt, Germany
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#17
Oct 30, 2008
Tim John wrote:
hubert
Ober-ramstadt, Germany
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#18
Oct 30, 2008
Tim John wrote:
"anyways good luck guys....and buy some food... this christmas will be unforgettable for the world....ull see"What do you mean by this, come back and explain this!! well i can only tell for sure about germany, but it will probably be world wide...i mean: financial and economical collapse is coming...it will take place atleast partly...and will ofcourse effect import and export and also the supermarkets.... there wont be enough food for all... many will starve even in rich countires...i know this out of first hand... wont be the biggest disaster u can imagine but for the first time the population will feel the consequences... and this cristmas will burn into their heads.... gues no great christmass dinner for many of us....beyon in the next 6 month the dollar will collapse and be replaced by the amero. there will be a financial union between USA CANADA and MEXICO...this information is still highly classified and kept secret.... but it leacked out ... and its all about forming the new NORTH american union.... your borders willl vannish...many americans will be very upset and there willl be riots, mass demonstrations and stuff... marshall law(wich secretly is already active) will officially be initiated and the millitarry will help the police to restore law and order.thats why quite a big part of the troops from irak is coming home... but there will also be aid from UN, NATO troops and even german special forces who have been secretly put into your countrie years ago and are training since then for the events to come...i know this because my second best friend is one of them.... he left me a goodbye-letter 2 years ago...may sound strange for the momment....but you will see.im soon heading towards russia with my family here in germany.so as i said: good luck
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HAARP
CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
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Listen to audio here: [link to pimpinturtle.com] "...When I came out, I saw very strange things. It was like there was lightning all around the city. There was no electricity but still there was light in the sky.The trees were jolting and shaking. It was just like a thunderstorm. I think the electricity lines caused this effect. Everybody came outside and we sat in our cars because it was cold..."[link to news.bbc.co.uk]
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:27 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 539746 (OP)10/31/2008 6:29 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538Lights in the sky? Lightning all around? Sounds a little HAARPish don't you think. Talk about convenient timing with the raid that killed more than 20 people today.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53622410/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
they are warring on paki.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
Read about the huge earthquakes in the midwest in the 1800s. Yes odd electrical activity has occurred during major earthquakes for thousands of years.
cloudUser ID: 27234110/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538yeah, & exhaust fumes stretching from horizon to horizon and hanging aroundall day have always been associated with air-travel.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 45484510/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
lol @ "confirmed"
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 539746 (OP)10/31/2008 6:32 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes.yeah, & exhaust fumes stretching from horizon to horizon and hanging aroundall day have always been associated with air-travel. Quoting: cloud 272341
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 539746 (OP)10/31/2008 6:32 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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lol @ "confirmed" Quoting: Anonymous Coward 454845
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:34 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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[link to www.nature.com] [link to adsabs.harvard.edu] Are scientific studies good enough for you guys? Sorry to rain on your Doom parades.
NeroUser ID: 197810/31/2008 6:36 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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Read about the huge earthquakes in the midwest in the 1800s. Yes odd electrical activity has occurred during major earthquakes for thousands of years. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538yes and I've seen that stuff, however I believe that these effects occur BEFORE, perhaps WEEKS before the actual event.those bastards .. .
'You will know them by their fruit . . '
hahahUser ID: 27234110/31/2008 6:41 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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Are scientific studies good enough for you guys? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538what, like the one that said wt7 burned down ?.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:43 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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Are scientific studies good enough for you guys? what, like the one that said wt7 burned down ?. Quoting: hahah 272341Yet you believe the things that you read on this website? Chemtrails MUST BE TRUE cause thats the only thing I can think of that can account for plummeting IQs.
blahUser ID: 27234110/31/2008 6:50 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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Chemtrails MUST BE TRUE cause thats the only thing I can think of that can account for plummeting IQs. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538don't rule out gm foods, vaccinations , fluoridation , deliberate mis-education etcremember, the ptb have declared war on the public using any & all means possible
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Listen to audio here: [link to pimpinturtle.com] "...When I came out, I saw very strange things. It was like there was lightning all around the city. There was no electricity but still there was light in the sky.The trees were jolting and shaking. It was just like a thunderstorm. I think the electricity lines caused this effect. Everybody came outside and we sat in our cars because it was cold..."[link to news.bbc.co.uk]
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:27 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 539746 (OP)10/31/2008 6:29 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538Lights in the sky? Lightning all around? Sounds a little HAARPish don't you think. Talk about convenient timing with the raid that killed more than 20 people today.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53622410/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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they are warring on paki.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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Read about the huge earthquakes in the midwest in the 1800s. Yes odd electrical activity has occurred during major earthquakes for thousands of years.
cloudUser ID: 27234110/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538yeah, & exhaust fumes stretching from horizon to horizon and hanging aroundall day have always been associated with air-travel.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 45484510/31/2008 6:31 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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lol @ "confirmed"
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 539746 (OP)10/31/2008 6:32 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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I'm to lazy to find a link but weird electrical activity has always been associated with earthquakes.yeah, & exhaust fumes stretching from horizon to horizon and hanging aroundall day have always been associated with air-travel. Quoting: cloud 272341
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 539746 (OP)10/31/2008 6:32 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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lol @ "confirmed" Quoting: Anonymous Coward 454845
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:34 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
[link to www.nature.com] [link to adsabs.harvard.edu] Are scientific studies good enough for you guys? Sorry to rain on your Doom parades.
NeroUser ID: 197810/31/2008 6:36 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
Read about the huge earthquakes in the midwest in the 1800s. Yes odd electrical activity has occurred during major earthquakes for thousands of years. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538yes and I've seen that stuff, however I believe that these effects occur BEFORE, perhaps WEEKS before the actual event.those bastards .. .
'You will know them by their fruit . . '
hahahUser ID: 27234110/31/2008 6:41 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
Are scientific studies good enough for you guys? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538what, like the one that said wt7 burned down ?.
Anonymous CowardUser ID: 53953810/31/2008 6:43 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
Quote
Are scientific studies good enough for you guys? what, like the one that said wt7 burned down ?. Quoting: hahah 272341Yet you believe the things that you read on this website? Chemtrails MUST BE TRUE cause thats the only thing I can think of that can account for plummeting IQs.
blahUser ID: 27234110/31/2008 6:50 PM
Re: CONFIRMED:***HAARP USED IN PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE*** EYEWITNESS/BBC
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Chemtrails MUST BE TRUE cause thats the only thing I can think of that can account for plummeting IQs. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 539538don't rule out gm foods, vaccinations , fluoridation , deliberate mis-education etcremember, the ptb have declared war on the public using any & all means possible
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